Europe, China, Excess Returns 

Written By Denis Rezendes, CFA

Hello Readers,

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Thanks for reading,

Denis Rezendes, Portfolio Manager

 

Fireside Charts

Europe is in the spotlight after a strong start to the year for European equities. So far, the strong performance has been mainly driven by sentiment and currency. Chinese equities are also off to a strong start, as investors hope that 2025 is the year the Chinese economy turns around. Apparently, there’s not much going on in the oil market. International exposure. Small caps. Excess returns. 

 

1. One week doesn’t make a trend

Europe Fund Flows
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  

 

2. Perhaps expectations for Eurozone economic growth can only go up from here: 

Eurozone GDP Forecast
Source: The Daily Shot 2/18/2025

 

3. Recent weakness in the U.S. Dollar has contributed to the strong performance of international assets: 

U.S. Dollar
Source: The Daily Shot 2/17/2025

 

4. The sluggish Chinese economy has been a drag on global growth for years: 

Bullish
Source: BofA Global Research   

 

5. Historically, the government has turned to export markets to spur growth but that may be difficult if tariffs continue to increase:  

tarrifs
Source: Morgan Stanley Research   

 

6. Although it may be a positive in the long-term if the government turns inward and spurs Chinese consumers: 

Chinese consumer
Source: BofA Global Research   

 

7. Recent volatility, or lack thereof, has been about as low as it gets in crude oil: 

Oil Volatility
Source: The Daily Shot 2/20/2025

 

8. The price of oil has hovered around $70 for the past year and a half:

Oil price
Source: @markets   Read full article   

 

9. Value stocks have less revenue exposure to international markets: 

Sales exposure
Source: Barclays Research   

 

10. Small caps fell short of a new high following the election and they’re down over 10% since:

small cap stocks
Source: @KevRGordon   

 

11. The outperformance of the largest stocks, over the past decade, has been extremely anomalous compared to history: 

excess returns
Source: Bridgewater Associates