Hello Readers,
As promised, we’re bringing you this week’s Fireside Charts with a fresh new look! While you’re here, we invite you to explore our newly updated website.
I’ll be sharing a Fireside Charts in Focus video on my LinkedIn page next week, so be sure to follow me there to catch the update.
Thanks for reading,
Denis Rezendes, Portfolio Manager
Fireside Charts
Europe is in the spotlight after a strong start to the year for European equities. So far, the strong performance has been mainly driven by sentiment and currency. Chinese equities are also off to a strong start, as investors hope that 2025 is the year the Chinese economy turns around. Apparently, there’s not much going on in the oil market. International exposure. Small caps. Excess returns.
1. One week doesn’t make a trend
2. Perhaps expectations for Eurozone economic growth can only go up from here:
3. Recent weakness in the U.S. Dollar has contributed to the strong performance of international assets:
4. The sluggish Chinese economy has been a drag on global growth for years:
5. Historically, the government has turned to export markets to spur growth but that may be difficult if tariffs continue to increase:
6. Although it may be a positive in the long-term if the government turns inward and spurs Chinese consumers:
7. Recent volatility, or lack thereof, has been about as low as it gets in crude oil:
8. The price of oil has hovered around $70 for the past year and a half:
9. Value stocks have less revenue exposure to international markets:
10. Small caps fell short of a new high following the election and they’re down over 10% since:
11. The outperformance of the largest stocks, over the past decade, has been extremely anomalous compared to history:
Disclosures:
Copyright © 2025 Algorithmic Investment Models LLC (AIM). All rights reserved. All materials appearing in this commentary are protected by copyright as a collective work or compilation under U.S. copyright laws and are the property of Beaumont Capital Management. You may not copy, reproduce, publish, use, create derivative works, transmit, sell or in any way exploit any content, in whole or in part, in this commentary without express permission from Beaumont Capital Management.
Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue,” or “believe,” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or actual performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Nothing contained herein may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance or a representation as to the future.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not in any sense constitute a solicitation or offer for the purchase or sale of a specific security or other investment options, nor does it constitute investment advice for any person. The material may contain forward or backward-looking statements regarding intent, beliefs regarding current or past expectations. The views expressed are also subject to change based on market and other conditions. The information presented in this report is based on data obtained from third party sources. Although it is believed to be accurate, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness.
The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from third parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
As with all investments, there are associated inherent risks including loss of principal. Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. Sector and factor investments concentrate in a particular industry or investment attribute, and the investments’ performance could depend heavily on the performance of that industry or attribute and be more volatile than the performance of less concentrated investment options and the market as a whole. Securities of companies with smaller market capitalizations tend to be more volatile and less liquid than larger company stocks. Foreign markets, particularly emerging markets, can be more volatile than U.S. markets due to increased political, regulatory, social or economic uncertainties. Fixed Income investments have exposure to credit, interest rate, market, and inflation risk. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss.
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend money to each other overnight. A treasury yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays on its debt, and the annual return that investors can expect from holding a U.S. government security.
Please contact your AIM Regional Consultant for more information or to address any questions that you may have.
Algorithmic Investment Models LLC (AIM), 125 Newbury St. 4th Floor, Boston, MA 02116 (844-401-7699)
The S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S. across various industries.