Trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials are set for this weekend. Both sides seem to recognize that current tariff levels are “unsustainable,” and if the goal is de-escalation, we hope it can be done quickly. The labor market has softened compared to recent years, though there’s currently little cause for alarm. Federal layoffs are beginning to appear in payroll data. S&P 500 earnings revisions. Oil breakevens. The Dollar. The G.O.A.T.
1. Current tariff levels have re-anchored expectations, but a 60% effective rate would still likely cause major disruptions:
2. Retailers are stretching inventories as they hope for a trade deal:
3. Less upward pressure on wages may help offset increases in goods prices from tariffs:
4. Americans’ current outlook for finding a quality job only looks particularly poor in comparison to recent years:
5. Federal layoffs remain modest compared to the pace of private sector job creation:
6. The earnings outlook is deteriorating:
7. U.S. oil production is unlikely to increase at current prices:
8. The Dollar hasn’t followed stocks higher:
9. Warren Buffett is going out on top, announcing his retirement the day after Berkshire Hathaway hit an all-time high:
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