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Un-Herd: Perspectives that may wander from the herd

We launched a newsletter today: Un-Herd! From real opinions about hot topics to the random or unexpected stories making the rounds, it’s a smart, candid look at what’s on our minds—delivered straight to your…

Un-Herd: Perspectives that may wander from the herd
Un-Herd: Perspectives that may wander from the herd
Un-Herd: Perspectives that may wander from the herd

We launched a newsletter today: Un-Herd! From real opinions about hot topics to the random or unexpected stories making the rounds, it’s a smart, candid look at what’s on our minds—delivered straight to your…

3 ETFs with the highest 1-month trailing return as of 9/12/2025
3 ETFs with the highest 1-month trailing return as of 9/12/2025

Here is a summary of the 5 ETFs from our investment universe with the highest 1-month trailing return and the factors that contributed to that performance.

Payroll Revisions, Inflation, AI Cap Ex
Payroll Revisions, Inflation, AI Cap Ex

As was widely anticipated, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) annual revision revealed that their initial estimates overstated job growth. Large revisions have been common in the past and usually occur around periods of…

When Eight Stocks Drive the Market, What Happens When They Fall?
When Eight Stocks Drive the Market, What Happens When They Fall?

Over the past several years we’ve watched the S&P 500’s performance become increasingly tethered to a handful of Mega-cap technology companies. So what happens when they fall?

Rate Cuts, Electricity, Private Equity
Rate Cuts, Electricity, Private Equity

It’s time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. A recent string of weak labor market data has all but cemented a rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September meeting,…

Mortgage Rates, Earnings Estimates, Nbelievable
Mortgage Rates, Earnings Estimates, Nbelievable

The Federal Reserve’s restrictive interest rate policy often shoulders the blame for higher mortgage rates but it’s not that simple. Lower mortgage rates will improve housing affordability at the margin, but the housing market…

Changing Economics of Mag 7, U.S. Stocks Lagging, Home Purchases Falling Through
Changing Economics of Mag 7, U.S. Stocks Lagging, Home Purchases Falling Through

Despite record earnings per share, tech giants are dramatically increasing their spending—moves that could reshape the economics of their businesses. The short- and long-term impacts of new tariffs are expected to vary drastically by…

Chinese Export Growth, Market Breadth, Tariff Pressures
Chinese Export Growth, Market Breadth, Tariff Pressures

Recent data highlights a growing divergence between headline narratives and what’s happening beneath the surface. As U.S. imports from China decline, global trade appears to be rerouting through other countries. Market breadth continues to…

AI Spending, Trade Policy, Goods Prices
AI Spending, Trade Policy, Goods Prices

The past week brought additional clarity to a few major economic themes. AI investment from major tech firms isn’t slowing, it’s accelerating. Outside of the AI boom, the economy appears to be slowing. U.S….

2Q25 Commentary: Unsteady Ground, Unshaken Optimism
2Q25 Commentary: Unsteady Ground, Unshaken Optimism

Markets shook off early volatility in Q2 2025, but underlying risks remain. We discuss shifting global leadership, labor market cracks, and growing investor complacency—plus how our strategies adapted amid evolving market dynamics.

Speculation, Hard Data, U.S. Dollar
Speculation, Hard Data, U.S. Dollar

U.S. equity markets are beginning to feel downright frothy as investors chase the rally and pile into some of the most speculative companies. While equity market gains began the year with broad gains, performance…

The “Mag 8” Are Now Competitors: What This Means for Investors
The “Mag 8” Are Now Competitors: What This Means for Investors

The “Magnificent 8” built their leadership through dominance in their respective sectors. Now, all eight companies are competing in the same vertical—AI. Watch this video for more context on what this means for investors:

Global Equities, Tariffs, Interest Rates
Global Equities, Tariffs, Interest Rates

More than half of global equity markets are trading at new highs, and very few are trading at new lows. If the second Trump administration is anything like the first, buoyant markets may lead…

Independence Day, Exuberant Markets, Wealthy Americans
Independence Day, Exuberant Markets, Wealthy Americans

In a redux of the end of 2024, major U.S. equity markets are hitting new highs while leaving the average stock behind. Markets appear to be looking past the recent deterioration in economic data….

More ETFs Have Bitcoin Exposure Than You Might Think
More ETFs Have Bitcoin Exposure Than You Might Think

I bought Bitcoin?? Some recent data compiled at bitcointreasuries.net has me asking this question about a significant number of ETFs we own or have an interest in via our Decathlon and BCM Sector products. …

Iran, Oil, Oranges
Iran, Oil, Oranges

All eyes are on the Middle East, as the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Although the turmoil will affect global oil markets, the rise of shale oil has left the U.S….

Inflation, Tariffs, Weather
Inflation, Tariffs, Weather

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than economists expected in May, a promising sign during the first full month with some tariff impact. It’s possible that businesses are still in a “wait and…

Risk Premium, Interest Rates, One Big Beautiful Bill
Risk Premium, Interest Rates, One Big Beautiful Bill

We want to take a moment this Memorial Day Weekend to honor those who gave their lives in service and reflect on their enduring sacrifice. It’s a solemn reminder of the cost of freedom…

Trade, Labor, The G.O.A.T.
Trade, Labor, The G.O.A.T.

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted slightly in the first quarter, although the report was heavily distorted by trade-related factors. Businesses and consumers alike are adjusting to tariffs, and they’re not very happy about…

GDP, China, Jobs
GDP, China, Jobs

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted slightly in the first quarter, although the report was heavily distorted by trade-related factors. Businesses and consumers alike are adjusting to tariffs, and they’re not very happy about…

1Q25 Commentary: The Tariff Man Cometh
1Q25 Commentary: The Tariff Man Cometh

2024 was a spectacular year for U.S. equity indices, but only a normal one for the typical stock which pulled back appreciably in December. Headline equity performance continued to be driven by the very…

Uncertainty, Earnings, Travel
Uncertainty, Earnings, Travel

Uncertainty surrounding trade is causing businesses to delay or cancel capital spending plans. The deteriorating earnings outlook likely isn’t helping either. Equity markets showed signs of stress in the week following “Liberation Day.”

Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs 
Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs 

Europe is in the spotlight after a strong start to the year for European equities. So far, the strong performance has been mainly driven by sentiment and currency. Chinese equities are also off to…

Market Madness: The “Elite 8” Are Becoming a Liability
Market Madness: The “Elite 8” Are Becoming a Liability

The recent market drawdown highlights risks of a concentrated S&P 500—and the case for diversification now. At this point, most investors should be keenly aware of the outsized importance of a select group of…

Europe, China, Excess Returns 
Europe, China, Excess Returns 

Europe is in the spotlight after a strong start to the year for European equities. So far, the strong performance has been mainly driven by sentiment and currency. Chinese equities are also off to…

Will Old Risks Return in the New Year?
Will Old Risks Return in the New Year?

2025 is off to an exciting start. Will the historical analogies hold true, or will 2025 be a year all its own? Companies are extremely optimistic about the future, but sometimes actions speak louder…

Inflation, Consumer Credit, DeepSeek
Inflation, Consumer Credit, DeepSeek

The first inflation print of the year came in hotter than expected. There may be more of the same ahead, according to both market and sentiment-based indicators. U.S. consumer credit saw its largest month-over-month…

4Q24 Commentary: Priced for Perfection – S&P 500 Increasingly Dependent on the AI trade
4Q24 Commentary: Priced for Perfection – S&P 500 Increasingly Dependent on the AI trade

2024 was a spectacular year for U.S. equity indices, but only a normal one for the typical stock which pulled back appreciably in December. Headline equity performance continued to be driven by the very…

Artificial Intelligence Doesn’t Appear Ready to Take Over the World Yet
Artificial Intelligence Doesn’t Appear Ready to Take Over the World Yet

The last two years have seen an explosion in the availability of artificial intelligence (AI) tools to the consumer. Products like ChatGPT and Midjourney have captured imaginations and caused speculation about how soon AI…

Today’s AI investment boom in the context of history
Today’s AI investment boom in the context of history

How short-term bubbles can lead to revolutionary innovation and in turn, long-term economic growth. We anticipate the AI investment boom to follow the same patterns we’ve seen throughout history.

Five Principles for Responsible Use of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Technologies in Asset Management
Five Principles for Responsible Use of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Technologies in Asset Management

As the general public becomes more informed about artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies, they are also becoming more informed about the potential risks that those of us who’ve been using these methods for…

5 Infographics to Better Understand Artificial Intelligence
5 Infographics to Better Understand Artificial Intelligence

As AI and machine learning are increasingly becoming part of day-to-day conversations, it may be helpful to familiarize yourself with some common concepts. Here I present 5 infographics that I hope will illuminate some…

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