The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than economists expected in May, a promising sign during the first full month with some tariff impact. It’s possible that businesses are still in a “wait and see” mode amid the rapid policy changes. Core CPI was pulled lower by price declines in some key categories, which may be a double-edged sword. Price stability is good, but falling prices can indicate weak demand, which is a negative for corporate earnings. Home sales. Searching for yield. How’s the weather?
1. Inflation remains on an encouraging trend:
2. Tariffs haven’t had a major impact on prices yet:
3. Current tariff rates are higher than anticipated prior to “Liberation Day,” yet they’re now well below the worst-case scenario:
4. Airline fares along with both new and used vehicle prices declined in May:
5. Inflation is a delicate balancing act because falling prices may signal falling demand:
6. Morgan Stanley expects further slowing of nominal consumption growth through the end of 2026:
7. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has often led earnings growth:
8. Interestingly, the share of existing home sales going to all foreign buyers has dwindled:
9. Major U.S. asset classes have converged around a similar yield:
10. Advances in computing power and quantitative methods, such as AI and machine learning, have greatly improved the accuracy of weather forecasting:
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